1 · Today's regime
The HMM's current classification, and how confident it is in it.
2 · Where we might go next
The trained transition matrix's row for today's regime — a different calculation from the confidence gauge above, not the same number.
3 · Regime history
Every regime run since 2008, colored and sized by how long it lasted. Hover a segment for its dates.
4 · In-regime factor performance
Annualized return for each factor ETF, computed only from days actually labeled with that regime. Day count shown per cell — thin cells (Crisis, in particular) are a small sample, disclosed rather than hidden.
5 · Forward outcome by horizon
Average return over the following 1/3/6/12 months, starting from every day in each regime. All four horizons are always shown — there's no single "correct" holding period measured from the notebooks, so the shape is left for you to read.
6 · Correlation across factor ETFs
Daily-return correlation, full overlapping history.